About the Competitions

Our footy tipping "competition" actually consists of three separate competitions:

You may play all or any of these each week - they are completely separate.

The Probabilistic Competition

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The Normal Competition

This competition is the similar to those played throughout Australia. It is sometimes also referred to as the traditional or standard competition. Tippers must choose the winning team and the number of points they think that team will win by (the "margin").

Tippers receive points for tipping the winning team plus bonus points depending on how close the tipped margin was to the actual margin.

Team tippedPoints
Winner10
Loser0
Draw0

The bonus points work as follows: Let A be the actual margin and Y be the margin you tipped. Then |A-Y| is the absolute value (ie. ignore the negative sign) of the difference between your margin and the actual margin. Note that even if you tip the losing team you are still in the running for bonus points. ie. your margin is really a just a negative value:

|A-Y|Bonus points
06
1..65
7..124
13..183
19..242
25..301
31 or more0

See also the Probabilistic and Gaussian competitions.

The Gaussian Competition

The Gaussian competition involves the tipper nominating a winning margin and a standard deviation.

The standard deviation allows the tipper to express his or her confidence in their choice of margin. The smaller the standard deviation, the more points you will get if the true margin is close to your one, but if it is too far out, you will receive a large negative score.

The tipper is rewarded with a constant plus the logarithm of the probability they assigned to the winning margin (denoted x below) in a manner similar to the Probabilistic competition. The formula for the game score (in bits) is:

In this competition the accuracy of prediction of winning margin is important. The standard deviation proves to be difficult to estimate accurately; experience has shown that a value around 40 is a good place to start.

See also the Normal and Probabilistic competitions.

References